Most Analysts Await Trade Deficit in May at around SKK 6 Bln.
28. júna 2003

Bank analysts expect the deficit of Slovakia’s foreign trade for May of this year between SKK 5.5 and SKK 8.1 billion. The majority of them anticipate the deficit at about SKK 6 billion. VUB analyst Vladimir Zlacky presented the most pessimistic estimate with his prediction that the monthly trade deficit in May would be SKK 8.1 billion.

The growth rate of exports should again approach 20 percent y/y, say analysts. UniBanka dealer Viliam Patoprsty explains that behind this anticipated development will be the comparative base effect because exports considerably decreased in May 2002. Export efficiency in the country should thus grow, mainly supported by extensive car exports, said CSOB analyst Marek Gabris.

As far as imports are concerned Mr. Gabris expects increased imports of technologies, mainly for new technology for aluminum smelting in Slovalco, if these imports have not been calculated in the April figures.

According to Ludova Banka analyst Mario Blascak the import growth rate could remain at 11 percent. The foreign trade structure should not change significantly. As the Statistics Office has gradually revised all monthly foreign trade figures, Mr. Patoprsty expects that this will also apply to the April results.

April figures for Slovakia’s foreign trade were worse than expected. The April trade deficit was SKK 6.985 billion, while analysts expected it at between SKK 2.3 billion and SKK 3.55 billion. Compared with April 2002, the foreign trade gap widened by 27.1 percent. During the fourth month of this year the export growth dynamics slowed down to 11.4 percent y/y and export amounted to SKK 60.315 billion. Imports rose 12.9 percent y/y to SKK 67.301 billion.

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